When the curtain closed on the 2024 calendar year, there was 25 percent less supply of homes for sale and 4 million more people living in Australia than 10-years ago.
They are compelling statistics to summarise why numerous property markets across Australia will experience significant upward pressure on real estate values during 2025 and beyond.
In a nation with 1.8 million more jobs now than 3-years ago and millions of households sitting on handsome amounts of equity, everyone should expect plenty of owner-occupiers and property investors to be kicking goals in 2025.
People’s motivation to buy it varies at different stages of their lives. From buying that modest first-ever home, to upgrading, downsizing, relocating or making the sensible decision to invest in one’s financial future.
Having analysed the various nuances of each city, capital growth rates for the 2025 calendar year are forecast to range from a 7 percent decline in one major Victorian city to as high as 30 percent growth in Australia’s 14th largest city [forecast for Top 25 cities].
The first few months of 2025 will be dominated by unproductive Federal Election posturing. As with every other election, housing is guaranteed to generate a lot of noise.
Elections occur every few years. Political events are very different to property market fundamentals and capital growth [learn from evidence].
My advice to those who care about property market performance is don’t let the daily rhetoric about clowns in Canberra cause you to become a dear in the headlights over the coming months.
Regardless of who says what about Australian housing and property markets, here are the key facts that matter most:
- 272,645: total supply of homes currently for sale (25 percent less than 363,853 properties 10-years ago)
- 4 million: total increase in Australia’s population over the last 10-years
- 538,111: new home construction commencements over the last 3 financial years
- 10,311: new home approvals over the last 3 financial years to be funded by all levels of government (aka ‘a poofteenth’).
- 41,894: total supply of homes currently advertised for rent (37 percent less than 66,639 properties 10-years ago)
- 15,000: total properties added to the national rental pool by governments over the 48-years since 1976 (while the national population increased by 13 million)
- $100+ billion: revenue received by governments from property taxes last year alone
- 522,525: total volume of real estate transactions last year (13 percent more than the previous year)
- 117,101: total properties purchased by first home buyers last year (9 percent more than the previous year)
- 700,000+: total property investors from Generation Y (they own 32 percent of the national rental pool)
- 1,759,616: total increase in job volumes over the last 3-years
- 405,581: total volume of current jobs advertised
- $213 billion: total value of the major public infrastructure pipeline for the next 5-years, reported by Infrastructure Australia
- 116,433,935: total domestic flights last financial year (6 percent more than the previous year)
- 35 percent: current RBA cash rate (unchanged for 13-months, but expected to reduce during 2025)
- 9 percent: total home loans in arrears
- $1.7 trillion: total household cash reserves (offset accounts, term deposits)
- $7.5 trillion: total equity in residential real estate (average household LVR of 30 percent)
- 300 percent: median house value in most of Australia’s 400+ individual cities and townships tripled (or more) over the last 20-years [here’s the evidence].
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