Australia’s population will probably be 31 million by the time Brisbane, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast co-host the Olympic Games in 2032.
For the curious minds, the national population surpassed the 5 million milestone in 1918, 10 million in 1959, 20 million in 2004 and 27 million in January 2024.
It can be difficult for some people to appreciate that some of the things which they accept as ‘normal’ have not always been that way.
For example, while Sydney will always be Australia’s oldest city, it has not always been the biggest, nor has its median house price always been the most expensive. And it has rarely been the best-performed property market.
When Melbourne’s population reached 489,000 in 1891 it was a significantly bigger city than Sydney (387,000).
And Adelaide (population 133,000) was 15 percent bigger than Brisbane (88,000), while Hobart (35,000) had 4-times more people than Perth (8,000).
Many people incorrectly believe that Melbourne has always been Australia’s second most expensive city, and that Darwin and Perth have always been the most affordable.
When Sydney surpassed 1 million population in 1925, Canberra was home to less than 7,000 people and Broken Hill (population 27,000) was Australia’s 12th largest, and arguably most economically important, city.
43 percent of Queensland’s total population lived in Brisbane in 1947, meaning 57 percent were spread across regional Queensland.
For the 50-years from the end of World War 2 through to the mid-1990’s, a large portion of movements completed by the existing resident population (aka ‘internal migration’) were from regional and rural communities to the bright lights of capital cities.
In 1950, a modest house cost circa $4,800 in Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart.
And backyards all over Australia were quickly being introduced to the (now iconic) Hills hoist clothesline and Victa lawnmower.
Melbourne hosted the Olympic Games in 1956. At the time, its population was 1.6 million (62 percent of the state) and it cost approximately $7,000 to buy a suburban house.
1960 was the year that the Reserve Bank of Australia was created. The Gold Coast and Tweed regions were little more than a collection of tiny villages and the combined population was just 50,000. Today it is 780,000.
Across the generations, new communities have been developed, housing density has changed, the population of different cities have grown at different rates, and there have been wild swings with the position that each city sits on the property ladder.
When Neil Armstrong landed on the moon in 1969, a standard suburban house cost the same in Perth as it did in Sydney – about $17,000. It was approximately 25 percent more affordable in Melbourne.
As recently as 1970, Darwin’s population was just 35,000. Now it is Australia’s 18th largest city.
When the Deakin University opened in Geelong in 1974, the Victorian regional city had a population of 125,000 (less than half its current size) and a standard house cost approximately $20,000.
While shopping centres were starting to be developed in suburbs across Australia for the first time, the combined capital city median house price in 1974 was $25,000.
Even then, cries of housing being ‘unaffordable’ and ‘under supply’ were heard every second day.
Fast forward 50-years to 2024, the combined capital city house price is $1,025,000.
On the balance of probabilities, that ‘typical’ house will triple in value over the next 20-years to be worth approximately $3 million.
It never pays to delay buying real estate.
Australian cities, trends, technology, economic fortunes, lifestyles and the general priorities of society are forever changing.
Only 15,000 people lived in Byron in 1980. The population increased mildly over the last 44-years to the current 36,000 people. Yet this relatively small regional city has consistently been among Australia’s Top 3 highest median house prices since 2005 and is currently Number One.
In 1984, the population of both Adelaide and Perth passed 1 million.
Up until that year, Adelaide had always been a bigger city than Perth. Just 30-years later, their respective populations are 1.37 million and 2.2 million.
Darwin was the second most expensive capital city in the country in 1986.
When the calendar turned over to 1991, Australia was experiencing its 3rd recession since 1974. People will be surprised to learn that the combined capital city house price increased by a massive 400 percent over those 17-years (from $25,000 to $129,000).
In 1991, Canberra’s median house price of $158,000 was only $3,000 less than Sydney’s.
By 1995, Sydney had restored its position of having Australia’s highest median house price ($176,000). Gold Coast was the second most expensive city, followed by Darwin (3rd). Cairns (6th), Ballina ($143,000 in 11th position), and Margaret River (14th) were among 16 cities that had a higher median house price than Melbourne (ranked 17th at $125,000).
Over the 30-years from the mid-1990’s to now, Australia’s internal migration pattern was flipped on its head. In every single one of the last 30-years, significantly more people relocated away from capital cities to various corners of regional Australia.
It is extraordinary to think that, when Google was founded in 1998, the West Australian tourism hotspot of Broome ($168,000) had the 9th most expensive real estate in Australia, and Newcastle ($123,000) was ranked 30th. Those values today are $670,000 and $890,000, respectively.
In 2002, the biggest city throughout the entire top half of Australia had a median house price of just $140,000. Over the following 5-years, Townsville’s property market boomed by a whopping 150 percent.
A year after Facebook was founded, the most expensive city in Australia in 2005 was the Illawarra regional township of Kiama (median house price $472,000).
In that same year, Byron was ranked second (up from 23rd in 1995), followed by Sydney. Bowral NSW ($385,000) was 11th.
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By 2005, Canberra was still the second most expensive capital city (and 13th overall), Perth was 18th, Melbourne had slipped to 22nd and Hobart was Australia’s most affordable capital city (39th overall).
Launceston, Australia’s 4th oldest and 36th largest city, was the nation’s strongest property market with 120 percent capital growth over just 3-years to the end of 2005 (median house price $195,000).
In 2006, Perth was Australia’s most expensive city (median house price $496,000), followed by Sydney, Canberra and Darwin.
That’s quite a different pecking order to 2024.
In 2008, when i-phones were slowly trickling into society for the first time, the most expensive location in this country of more than 400 townships was Port Hedland.
At the time, the Western Australian regional township had a population of 14,300 people (just 0.3 percent of Sydney’s 4.4 million).
Port Hedland’s median house price of $550,000 was 18 percent more than Sydney’s $465,000 and 51 percent more than Adelaide.
House price in Darwin in 2010 were on par with Melbourne and Canberra (circa $530,000), and significantly more expensive than Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, and Hobart.
Over the next 10-year period ending July 2020, Darwin’s median house price declined by 13 percent to $460,000.
In 2015, while in the middle of a 4-year property boom, Sydney’s median house price had soared to be Australia’s most expensive property market once again (median house price $913,000). Melbourne had boomed up to 4th spot.
Wollongong ($590,000) had Australia’s 9th highest median house price in 2015. Noosa ($572,000) was 10th.
Meanwhile, lesser-known regional townships such as Ballina (11th), Yass (18th) and Adelaide Hills (19th) were ranked ahead of Brisbane (20th).
Believe it or not, Alice Springs ($455,000) was more expensive than 30th ranked Adelaide ($448,000) in 2015. And Hobart was way back in 55th place with a median house price of $355,000.
Then the lid was lifted on the previous well-kept secret of Tasmania’s many treasures. The general profile of the state and its economy roared from cellar dweller to Australia’s very best.
Consequently, over the 7-years subsequent to 2015, Hobart’s median house price increased by 128 percent to $797,000 by June 2022 – it was one of the biggest and longest growth cycles ever experienced by any Australian city.
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In 2024, the NSW regional townships of Byron and Kiama are ranked 1st and 2nd in Australia, followed by Sydney.
With a population of just 10,000 people (half the size of Mt Isa and heaps smaller than every capital city), Kingscliff is Australia’s 9th more expensive city – its median house price is higher than 7 out of 8 capital cities.
This condensed summary of Australian property markets over the last 100-years illustrates that the pecking order is forever changing.
The evidence proves that movement up and down the property ladder has never had anything to do with population size, capital city versus region, coastal versus inland, or warm versus cool climates.
As with the past, we can all be certain that future decades will produce ‘new normals’.
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