House prices doubled in 29-townships over the last 5-years. And a further 50-townships enjoyed spectacular growth of between 70 and 90 percent.
Ordinarily, a 30 percent increase in median house values over any 5-year period would be considered ‘solid’.
Over the last 5 calendar years, 118 out of Australia’s 140-townships that have a population of 15,000 people or more produced capital growth of between 50 percent and 115 percent.
Truth be known, the 5-years ending 2024 is now forever etched in history as an era that produced one of the strongest national property market performances over the 124-years since Federation [here’s the history].
And that incredible result is despite the 5-year block commencing with 2-years of (unprecedented) population decline, while the block ended with one of the sharpest ever increases in the RBA Cash Rate.
In fact, many things did the complete opposite to what life’s lemonsuckers were so incredibly ‘fearful’ of happening.
In this report, Propertyology provides a statistical that compares the 5YE 2024 with the directly prior 5YE 2019.
While the economists, banks, negative Neville’s and sour Sally’s sucked every ounce of juice from countless cartons of lemons, society’s true achievers popped champagne corks in celebration for great growth in household equity, first home buyer activity, job creation, retirement nest eggs and home upgrades.
This report also contains indisputable statistical proof that federal and state governments combined added just 18,000 new homes over the last 5-years – pathetic!
Related article: Why does housing cost so much?
In addition to doing everything within their power to totally suffocate rental supply, governments financially ‘raped’ Australians with various property taxes to the tune of $380 billion.
Australia’s best performers
Food production and natural landscapes are prominent among many of the 29-townships where their median house value doubled over the 5-years from January 2020 to December 2024.
Relatively affordable housing, extremely tight local housing supply, agribusiness and the resources sector are common characteristics among Australia’s star property markets.
The single biggest important component for property market performance is always local economic conditions.
So, it is no surprise that all of the 29 townships (cities and municipalities) are located within the 4-states that had the strongest economic conditions for much of the last 5-years.
Queensland
Lockyer Valley (Gatton), South Burnett (Kingaroy), Somerset (Kilcoy), Bundaberg, Rockhampton, Western Downs (Dalby & Chinchilla), Gympie, Livingstone (Yeppoon), Fraser Coast (Maryborough & Hervey Bay), Gladstone, Southern Downs (Warwick), Noosa and Scenic Rim (Beaudesert).
Western Australia
Port Hedland, Mandurah, Busselton, Geraldton, Capel, Bunbury, Margaret River and Harvey
South Australia
Murray Bridge, Mount Gambier, Copper Coast (Kadina) and Port Pirie
New South Wales
Snowy Monaro (Cooma) and Broken Hill
Despite a significant portion of Australia’s townships being somewhere along the coastline of the 6th largest country in world, 11-inland townships were among the nation’s Top 3 percent for capital growth rates.
The 50-townships that produced between 70 percent and 90 percent capital growth over the last 5-years included the beautiful border city of Albury-Wodonga, Burnie in Tasmania, Mount Barker and Port Lincoln in SA, Sunshine Coast and Townsville in Queensland, and Dubbo and Wagga Wagga in NSW.
A blanket could be thrown over the best-performed capital cities – Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth – who each enjoyed growth of between 77 and 81 percent.
The ‘Wooden Spoon’ goes to…
Out of 140 Australian cities and townships that have a population of 15,000 or more, Australia’s 2nd largest city, Melbourne, was officially the second worst property market [we flagged this likelihood early].
Melbourne’s real estate mediocrity was despite receiving an all-time record high influx of overseas migration in 2023 (146,000) and 2024 (110,000).
Related article: Truth about overseas migration
Only Alice Springs (9 percent) produced a lower growth rate than Melbourne.
Meanwhile, against a backdrop of declining population across the last 5-years, house values doubled in Australia’s 128th largest township, Broken Hill (total population 17,700 people).
Melbourne’s 20 percent growth across the last 5-years included 25 percent growth in the 2021 calendar year – while the city’s population was declining.
As for the foreseeable future, all of the wishful thinking and confirmation biases in the world will be completely powerless against these fragile fundamentals for Melbourne’s property market.
Comparing periods
FACT
To put into perspective the real estate results of the last 5-years, it’s worth noting that the rates of growth of the very best property markets over the previous 5YE 2019 would be among the bottom quartile rates of growth of the 5YE 2024.
Over the 5YE 2019, the ten (10) best capital growth rates were in Hobart (56 percent), Bowral NSW, Snowy region NSW, Lithgow NSW, Noosa QLD and Macedon Ranges VIC (all 50 percent), Byron NSW, Kiama NSW, George Town TAS and Bass Coast VIC (all 47 percent).
FACT
The strongest state economies over the 5YE 2019 were Tasmania, Victoria and NSW. Western Australia was morbid, and Queensland’s economy was very uninspiring.
The weakest property markets were cities whose economy depended heavily on the mining sector, including Port Hedland (minus 63 percent), Mount Isa (minus 40), Moranbah (minus 34), Whyalla (minus 27), Darwin (minus 18), Perth (minus 15) and Rockhampton (minus 8).
FACT
The previous 5-years ending December 2019 saw Australia’s total population increase by 1.88 million, which was much the same as the estimated population growth for the 5YE 2024.
Yet countless falsely tagged ‘experts’ who clearly have not studied Australian real estate history still believe that ‘population growth’ is the magic sauce for house price growth [refer this ‘Dumb Stuff’].
The term ‘expert’ is as overused as the term ‘crisis’.
FACT
With the same population growth over both 5-year periods, Australians purchased 1.57 million residential properties over the 5YE 2019, compared to 2.28 million (45 percent more properties) while the fearmongers sucked lemons during the 5YE 2024.
FACT
Over the 5YE 2019, Australia created 1.32 million jobs. With the inconvenience of border closures, social distancing and lockdowns, 1.68 million extra jobs were created over the 5YE 2024.
And the official data confirms that the biggest improvement in job creation was in various corners of regional Australia.
Sydney and Melbourne lagged well behind other capital cities.
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FACT
The RBA cash rate was locked between 1.5 and 2.5 percent for 52 of the 60-month period ending 2019. Interest rates were significantly higher for a large chunk of 5YE 2024 (3.1 percent to 4.35 percent for the entire last 24-months).
Not for the first time, this evidence confirms that higher interest rates does not automatically equate to ‘mortgage cliffs’, spiralling home loan arrears and lower rates of capital growth.
I refer to them as ‘lemonsuckers’ for good reason.
FACT
The outstanding growth in real estate asset values meant that the combined Australian capital city median house value at the end of the last 5-years was $1.08 million.
Despite the daily shouting about ‘housing affordability’, 650,000 households purchased their first home over the 5YE 2024. That’s superb!
The previous 5-year period commenced with the combined Australian capital city median house value of a much more affordable $620,000.
Yet 467,000 transactions by first home buyers occurred during the 5YE 2019 – that’s 39 percent fewer than the subsequent 5-years which had (both) higher house prices and higher interest rates.
FACT
0.92 million building approvals over 5YE 2024 is just 14 percent less than the 1.07 million over 5YE 2019.
During both blocks of 5-years, the combined volume of housing supply funded by the federal and all state governments was a pathetic 2 percent.
FACT
Using advertised property vacancies to measure the depth of Australia’s rental pool, there were 77,000 properties available 10-years ago.
By the end of 2019, the rental pool had increased marginally to 84,600.
But constant attacks by governments on rental suppliers directly resulted in a rental supply drought such that just 47,000 properties were available by the end of 2024.
FACT
While every action made by federal and state governments significantly restricts housing supply, the evidence confirms that the only thing that they are consistently ‘good’ at is taxing housing.
One could argue it worthy of gaol time to charge the Australian public $264 billion over the 5YE 2019 for merely clipping tickets (stamp duty, land tax, capital gains tax and other property taxes).
So, what penalty should be imposed for charging an even higher $384 billion over 5YE 2024?
$384 billion is enough money to build 77x Olympic stadiums (@$5 billion each). Or 384-major hospitals (@$1 billion each).
$384 billion would cover the cost of 480,000 new house-and-land packages – enough homes to house an entire city the size of Adelaide.
Generations of official facts prove that governments (state and federal) do NOT fund the supply of housing. So, exactly what have the muppets wasted the $384 billion from property taxes on?
Emotions versus Actions
General intelligence, emotional intelligence, financial intelligence, thought leadership and topic-specific intelligence (such as property market intelligence) are all very different qualities.
The unique events of the last 5-years and what transpired is a valuable reminder that a vast majority of humans possess an inability to separate the negative emotions associated with an adverse event from the probable response to the adversity by society’s leaders, and the impact of that response on property markets.
This time 5-years ago, to confront the first global health pandemic in 100-years, Australia was forced into an indefinite national lock-down.
Many mocked Propertyology when, in March 2020, we published this video declaring that the doomsaying commentators and economists will (once again) look incredibly silly when an enormous property boom commences within months.
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We doubled-down 2-years later. Amidst yet another mountain of fear and paranoia directly prior to the RBA’s first interest rate increase we explained why we would not be surprised if house values double over the next 6-years in various parts of Australia.
My sincerest CONGRATULATIONS are extended to every Australian who did something positive for their future.
Their preparedness to take action has been rewarded with a significant increase in their nest-egg.
It is testament to the enormous value in refusing to be adversely influenced by the long list of lemonsuckers who forever focus on a couple of clouds among a mostly blue sky.
There are three (3) absolute certainties to have stood the test of an entire century:
- Australian residential real estate is the best asset on the planet,
- Almost every human on the planet has a poor understanding about the machinations of property markets. That includes 99 percent of the people placed on pedestals and (undeservedly) given the title of ‘expert’, and
- Governments charge grossly excessive taxes on real estate (including more than $90 billion in 2023/24 alone).
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