Across a country with approximately 11.2 million homes, a total of 581,698 residential properties changed hands with the assistance of finance during the last 12-months ending September 2024.
Approximately 15 percent of residential properties purchased across Australia each year are ‘cash’ purchases.
Propertyology’s review of the official residential finance statistics confirms that Queensland and Western Australia were the nation’s real estate hotspots during 2024.
The numbers continue to be solid in South Australia.
But buyers in New South Wales have well and truly retreated, and the state of affairs in Victoria is likely to remain ugly for quite some time.
At a national level, a significant 20 percent (or 117,360) of all properties purchased during the last 12-months were by first home buyers.
As always, the most active segment were secondary buyers (upgraders and downsizers) with 251,855 transactions.
Meanwhile, 212,483 housing finance transactions (or 36 percent) were to purchase investment properties.
Ordinarily that would be a healthy volume of extra supply to the national rental pool. But the 212,483 figure excludes the high volume of properties removed from the rental pool through landlords electing to exit the market.
The below graphic uses official state government rental bond statistics to illustrate the serious evaporation of the rental pools of Australia’s three most populated states.
First Home Buyers
Victoria (37,672 out of 117,360 transactions), Western Australia (15,908 buyers) and ACT (2,890) had a bigger share of the overall national transactions by first home buyers compared to their respective share of the national population.
NSW was the worst performed state for first home buyer participation over the year ending September 2024.
28,404 transactions in NSW represented just 24 percent of the national FHB share, whereas NSW accommodates 31 percent of Australia’s total population.
Research insights: SUBSCRIBE HERE
Tasmania (1,976 households entered the property market for the first time), Northern Territory (748) and Queensland (22,503 or 19 percent of the national share) were solid, albeit slightly below parity.
Replacement Home Buyers
When contemplating the overall health of Australian household finances and confidence, the volume of existing owner-occupied households upgrading their home is possibly the most useful metric of all.
The numbers suggest that Queensland is currently leading the nation.
With a total state population of 5.5 million, Queensland’s 81,111 replacement home buyers was significantly better than NSW (64,559 buyers across a state population of 8.5 million) and Victoria (66,276 buyers and 7 million population).
The people of Western Australia (32,457 upgrade buyers) and South Australia (18,333 homes) are also in a better than average headspace.
Investment Buyers
The discretionary action of electing to add supply to Australia’s rental pool typically follows the path of locations with economic prosperity and investor support.
In this regard, the debt-laden and aspiration-killing state that Victoria has become is (unsurprisingly) reflected in the low participation rates of investors in the state’s property markets – just 48,844 transactions for the year, not to mention a proverbial ‘truckload’ of investors selling up.
Western Australia (28,329 investment buyers for the state’s 2.95 million population) and Queensland (49,656 purchases of investment properties) are again leading the country.
Related article: Understanding the Perth property market
South Australia and ACT rental suppliers hovered around parity over the 12-months to September 2024, while NSW (62,924 transactions) had insufficient activity to improve the depth of the state’s rental pool.
Tasmania (2,638 investment property purchases) and NT (1,093) only added half the volume of rental properties needed to maintain parity in its rental market.
Across Australia, there were just 36,486 properties advertised for rent at the end of October 2024. That’s roughly half the 70,663 properties that were available back in October 2015 when Australia’s population was 3.5 million less than what it is now.
Migration Patterns
Over the 2.5 years ending December 2021 and despite a falling population from negative migration, Melbourne produced a strong 32 percent growth in median house values [but Propertyology urged caution].
The reverse occurred over the subsequent 2.5 years… Melbourne’s population soared by circa 350,000 yet property values declined. Read that again!
200,000 homes purchased by Victorian owner-occupiers over the last 2-years ending September 2024 while the population was booming is significantly less than the 270,000 homes purchased during the previous 2-years when there was zero population growth.
Official evidence has never supported the theory regarding ‘housing demand’ being a measurement of population growth.
This Melbourne Case Study is just another parcel of proof to confirm Propertyology’s science of property market cause-and-effect.
With 26 percent capital growth over the last 5-years, Melbourne’s property market was officially the worst in Australia.
For perspective, between 70 and 80 percent capital growth was produced in Adelaide SA, Albury NSW, Burnie TAS, Brisbane QLD, Perth WA, Sunshine Coast QLD, Victor Harbor SA, Wagga Wagga NSW and Warrnambool VIC.
And they weren’t Australia’s best!
Invest with the best: CONTACT US
As for interstate migration, Queensland (30,930) and Western Australia (10,039) were the only two states that attracted people to move interstate over the last 12-months.
Propertyology are national buyer’s agents and Australia’s premier property market analyst. Every capital city and every non-capital city, Propertyology analyse fundamentals in every market, every day. We use this valuable research to help everyday Aussies to invest in strategically-chosen locations (literally) all over Australia. Like to know more? Contact us here.
Here’s how we combine our thought-leading research with Propertyology’s award-winning buyer’s agency services.
